Find and stress-test the key assumptions in a business case
Pulls out every assumption a business case depends on, rates how shaky and how critical each one is, and shows what happens if they're wrong.
The prompt
Review this business case and identify the key assumptions it depends on.
Business case: [PASTE THE DOCUMENT, slides text, or model summary]
My role: [author / approver / reviewer / finance partner]
What the decision is: [e.g. "approve $1.2M for a new CRM"]
Anything I already doubt: [OPTIONAL]
Steps:
1. List every assumption, stated or hidden: volumes, adoption rates, prices, costs, timelines, headcount savings, benefits start dates, discount rates, dependencies on other teams or vendors. Quote or point to where each one appears.
2. For each assumption, rate:
- Criticality: how much the result changes if it is wrong (high / medium / low).
- Confidence: how well evidenced it is (benchmark, pilot data, vendor claim, guess).
3. Flag common business case failures: benefits counted twice, costs missing (training, change management, maintenance, internal time), straight-line adoption, benefits starting on day one, no do-nothing baseline, savings that are not actually cashable.
4. For the top 5 high-criticality, low-confidence assumptions, show a downside case: what happens to payback or ROI if each one is 20-30% worse. Use the case's own numbers; if the math can't be done from what's given, say what is missing.
Return:
1. Assumptions table: # | Assumption | Where it appears | Criticality | Confidence | Evidence | How to test it.
2. The 5 riskiest assumptions with their downside effect.
3. Missing costs or benefits.
4. 5-8 questions to ask the case owner before approval.
5. A one-paragraph verdict: robust, fragile, or needs rework.
Do not invent benchmarks. Mark any figure you estimate as [EST] and anything to verify as [CONFIRM].
Highlighted [brackets] are blanks to replace with your own details.
Fill in the blanks and use this promptMore Business Strategy & Startups prompts
What to fill in
- PASTE THE DOCUMENT, slides text, or model summary
- author / approver / reviewer / finance partner
- e.g. "approve $1.2M for a new CRM"
- OPTIONAL
- EST
- CONFIRM
How this prompt is built
This prompt follows the RTF structure (Role, Task, Format). RTF tells the model who to be, what to do and what shape the answer should take. It is the quickest structure that still gives noticeably better results than a bare request.
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