Challenge my interpretation of the data and find other explanations
Stress-tests your conclusions for alternative explanations, cherry-picking, and averaging traps, then gives you a defensible version.
The prompt
Stress-test the conclusions I'm drawing from this data before I share them.
My conclusion(s): [WHAT I THINK THE DATA SHOWS]
Data or analysis: [PASTE]
How I got there: [OPTIONAL - filters, time window, segments, calculations]
Who will rely on it: [AUDIENCE and the decision at stake]
Challenge it on:
1. Alternative explanations: at least three other stories that fit the same numbers.
2. Cherry-picking: would a different time window, baseline, or segment change the conclusion?
3. Base rates and scale: are percentages hiding small numbers, or totals hiding rates?
4. Mix and averages: could a shift in the mix of segments produce this result on its own (Simpson's paradox)?
5. Measurement: did a definition, tracking method, or data source change during the period?
6. Confirmation bias: what evidence would contradict me, and did I look for it?
Return:
- A verdict for each conclusion: Holds up / Holds with caveats / Weak / Not supported.
- A table: Challenge | Why it matters here | How to check | What it would mean if true.
- A revised, defensible version of each conclusion.
- The 3 questions a skeptical executive is most likely to ask, and how I should answer them.
Be direct and don't soften a weak conclusion. Base the challenges on the data I gave you, and say clearly when you are pointing to a general risk rather than evidence in the data.
Highlighted [brackets] are blanks to replace with your own details.
Fill in the blanks and use this promptMore Data & Analysis prompts
What to fill in
- WHAT I THINK THE DATA SHOWS
- PASTE
- OPTIONAL - filters, time window, segments, calculations
- AUDIENCE and the decision at stake
How this prompt is built
This prompt follows the RTF structure (Role, Task, Format). RTF tells the model who to be, what to do and what shape the answer should take. It is the quickest structure that still gives noticeably better results than a bare request.
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