# Map the second-order effects and unintended consequences of a decision

Traces what happens after the obvious first effect of a decision, who reacts and how, and which knock-on risks need a plan.

- Topic: Thinking & Decisions
- Framework: Few-Shot
- Level: Standard
- Tags: Plan, Fill-in Template
- Source: https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/prompts/map-the-second-order-effects-and-unintended-consequences-of-a-decision

## Prompt

```text
Help me think through the knock-on effects of a decision before we make it.

**The decision:** [WHAT WE PLAN TO DO - e.g. "move support to a ticket-only model", "cut the travel budget 40%"]
**The intended result:** [WHAT WE WANT TO ACHIEVE]
**Who is affected:** [TEAMS, CUSTOMERS, PARTNERS, SUPPLIERS, REGULATORS]
**Context:** [timing, current pressures, how the organization usually reacts to change]

Steps:
1. List the first-order effects: the direct, intended results and the obvious costs.
2. For each, ask "and then what?" twice to get second- and third-order effects. Look at how people's behavior and incentives change, how customers and competitors respond, effects on other teams and metrics, and what happens over 6-18 months, not just next quarter.
3. Flag unintended consequences, especially ones that work against the goal (e.g. a cost cut that raises churn).
4. Rate each effect by likelihood and impact.

Return:
1. A consequence map as an indented list: Decision > first-order > second-order > third-order.
2. A table: Effect | Who it hits | Order (1st/2nd/3rd) | Likelihood | Impact | Positive or negative | Early warning sign.
3. The top 3 risks, each with a way to reduce it or a change to the decision's design.
4. What to measure after launch to catch problems early.

Rules: keep it plausible and specific to my situation; label speculation as such. Don't invent figures; mark any estimate as [ESTIMATE].
```

## What to fill in

- WHAT WE WANT TO ACHIEVE
- TEAMS, CUSTOMERS, PARTNERS, SUPPLIERS, REGULATORS
- ESTIMATE

Free to copy and use. From ThinkWithPrompt (https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/), a library of 2,663 curated AI prompts.