# Forecast a delivery date range from team velocity

Uses your backlog size and past throughput to give a realistic date range instead of a single promised date.

- Topic: Data & Analysis
- Framework: Few-Shot
- Level: Standard
- Tags: Fill-in Template
- Source: https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/prompts/forecast-a-delivery-date-range-from-team-velocity

## Prompt

```text
Help me forecast when my team will finish a body of work, using our past delivery data.

**Remaining work:** [e.g. "140 story points" or "62 backlog items"]
**Past velocity or throughput:** [LIST the last 6-10 sprints or weeks - e.g. "28, 31, 22, 35, 30, 26"]
**Sprint or week length:** [e.g. 2 weeks]
**Start date for the forecast:** [DATE]
**Known changes ahead:** [holidays, people joining or leaving, other commitments]
**Scope growth so far:** [how much the backlog has grown per sprint, if known]

Steps:
1. Calculate the average, lowest, and highest velocity from my data, and comment on how stable it is.
2. Produce three forecasts: optimistic (high velocity), likely (average), and conservative (low velocity).
3. Adjust for known capacity changes and, if I gave it, typical scope growth - explain each adjustment.
4. If I have at least 8 data points, describe a simple Monte Carlo-style approach (sampling past sprints at random) and what an 85% confidence date would mean.

Rules: do not invent velocity figures. Flag if story points look inconsistent across sprints or if the sample is too small to trust.

Return:
1. A forecast table: scenario | sprints needed | finish date.
2. The date I should commit to externally and the confidence behind it.
3. A burn-up description I can draw (scope line vs. completed line).
4. A two-sentence way to explain the range to stakeholders who want one date.
```

## What to fill in

- e.g. "140 story points" or "62 backlog items"
- e.g. 2 weeks
- DATE
- holidays, people joining or leaving, other commitments
- how much the backlog has grown per sprint, if known

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