# Estimate how a price change will affect my sales

Scenario estimates of how a price change or promotion moves units, revenue, and margin, with an adjusted forecast and a test plan.

- Topic: Data & Analysis
- Framework: RTF
- Level: Advanced
- Tags: Sales, Career, Strategy, Fill-in Template
- Source: https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/prompts/estimate-how-a-price-change-will-affect-my-sales

## Prompt

```text
Help me estimate how a price change or promotion will affect my sales, and update my forecast.

**Product or service:** [WHAT it is and who buys it]
**Change I'm considering:** [e.g. "raise price 8%", "20% off for 4 weeks", "new bundle", "competitor just cut prices"]
**Baseline:** [units, revenue, and margin per unit by month for the last 6-12 months]
**Past evidence:** [results of earlier price changes or promotions, if any]
**Market context:** [contract vs. one-off buyers, competitors, switching costs, seasonality]
**Current forecast:** [PASTE or describe]

Steps:
1. Estimate how sensitive demand is, using my past data if available. If not, give low, mid, and high elasticity assumptions and explain what pushes us toward each end.
2. Model three scenarios (pessimistic, expected, optimistic): units, revenue, and gross margin. Calculate the break-even volume change - how much volume we can lose before a price increase stops paying off, or must gain for a discount to pay off.
3. Account for second-order effects: pull-forward and post-promotion dips, cannibalization of other products, churn of existing customers, competitor response, and sales-cycle timing.
4. Show the forecast adjusted month by month, keeping the original as a baseline.
5. Suggest how to test before committing (one region, segment, or time window) and which leading indicators to watch in the first 2-4 weeks.

Return: an assumptions table, a scenario table, the adjusted forecast, and a one-paragraph recommendation.

Show every formula so I can rebuild it in a spreadsheet. Don't invent data; label every assumption and mark anything I need to supply [ADD].
```

## What to fill in

- WHAT it is and who buys it
- results of earlier price changes or promotions, if any
- PASTE or describe
- ADD

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