# Check whether my data shows causation or just correlation

Separates trend, correlation, and possible causation in your analysis and gives you the strongest claim you can honestly make.

- Topic: Data & Analysis
- Framework: Few-Shot
- Level: Standard
- Tags: Analyze, Code, Fill-in Template
- Source: https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/prompts/check-whether-my-data-shows-causation-or-just-correlation

## Prompt

```text
Help me work out how strongly my data supports the claim I want to make, separating trend, correlation, and possible causation.

**Claim I want to make:** [e.g. "The training program increased sales"]
**Data and analysis:** [PASTE - what was measured, for whom, over what period]
**How the data was collected:** [e.g. "people opted in", "pilot in two regions", "A/B test", "before-and-after comparison"]
**What else changed at the same time:** [OPTIONAL - other launches, seasonality, staffing, pricing]

Assess:
1. **Trend**: is there a real movement over time, or is it within normal variation? How many data points support it?
2. **Correlation**: do the two things move together, how strongly, and in which segments?
3. **Causation**: test against the common alternatives: reverse cause, a third factor driving both, selection (the group was different to begin with), regression to the mean, seasonality, and coincidental timing.
4. **Evidence needed**: what would support a causal claim (a control group, staggered rollout, dose-response, comparison with a prior period).

Return:
- A verdict: Trend only / Correlation / Suggestive of causation / Strong causal evidence, with reasons.
- A table: Alternative explanation | How plausible here | How to rule it out.
- The strongest honest sentence I can put in a report or slide, plus one sentence I should avoid.
- The cheapest next test that would raise confidence.

Do not overstate the evidence. If the data cannot tell the explanations apart, say so.
```

## What to fill in

- e.g. "The training program increased sales"
- PASTE - what was measured, for whom, over what period
- OPTIONAL - other launches, seasonality, staffing, pricing

Free to copy and use. From ThinkWithPrompt (https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/), a library of 2,663 curated AI prompts.