# Challenge my interpretation of the data and find other explanations

Stress-tests your conclusions for alternative explanations, cherry-picking, and averaging traps, then gives you a defensible version.

- Topic: Data & Analysis
- Framework: RTF
- Level: Standard
- Tags: Analyze, Fill-in Template
- Source: https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/prompts/challenge-my-interpretation-of-the-data-and-find-other-explanations

## Prompt

```text
Stress-test the conclusions I'm drawing from this data before I share them.

**My conclusion(s):** [WHAT I THINK THE DATA SHOWS]
**Data or analysis:** [PASTE]
**How I got there:** [OPTIONAL - filters, time window, segments, calculations]
**Who will rely on it:** [AUDIENCE and the decision at stake]

Challenge it on:
1. **Alternative explanations**: at least three other stories that fit the same numbers.
2. **Cherry-picking**: would a different time window, baseline, or segment change the conclusion?
3. **Base rates and scale**: are percentages hiding small numbers, or totals hiding rates?
4. **Mix and averages**: could a shift in the mix of segments produce this result on its own (Simpson's paradox)?
5. **Measurement**: did a definition, tracking method, or data source change during the period?
6. **Confirmation bias**: what evidence would contradict me, and did I look for it?

Return:
- A verdict for each conclusion: Holds up / Holds with caveats / Weak / Not supported.
- A table: Challenge | Why it matters here | How to check | What it would mean if true.
- A revised, defensible version of each conclusion.
- The 3 questions a skeptical executive is most likely to ask, and how I should answer them.

Be direct and don't soften a weak conclusion. Base the challenges on the data I gave you, and say clearly when you are pointing to a general risk rather than evidence in the data.
```

## What to fill in

- WHAT I THINK THE DATA SHOWS
- PASTE
- OPTIONAL - filters, time window, segments, calculations
- AUDIENCE and the decision at stake

Free to copy and use. From ThinkWithPrompt (https://www.thinkwithprompt.com/), a library of 2,663 curated AI prompts.